Can Crist Boost McCain to a Florida Win?

(The Arizona Senator now tops Romney in polling…but not by much)

Democrats are having all the fun in this election cycle. No matter which of the two main contenders wins their presidential nomination, the core liberal constituency will be satisfied. So Clinton and Obama don’t have to tiptoe around so much on issues, and are free to generate sexier fireworks. By contrast, the four Republicans who still have a shot must feel like they’re walking through a minefield. All know they’ll need crossover and Independent votes to win, so if they step too far over the conservative line, it’s risky. Going too far in the other direction, though, could mean losing the heart of the party, a poor election-day turnout, and defeat in what promises to be an extremely close election under the best of circumstances. I wonder if John, Mitt, Mike and Rudy have prescriptions for sleeping medication.

To make my position clear: my heart is with Alan Keyes. McCain and I have serious differences on taxes and immigration. But, much as I can go along in principle with the credo of voting my conscience, I am more concerned that my vote might help land a Democrat in the White House. In this case, I think I’ll try to stay afloat even if I have only one flag flying. In the final analysis, party philosophy means something. Anyway, that’s my fervent hope. But we’re not here to talk about me, fascinating as the subject is.

Florida’s primary looms in less than 24 hours, and the polls have been all over the map. But the one constant in all of them has been that Tuesday will provide a narrow victory and 57 delegates (half the normal number: punishment for moving up the state’s primary) for either John McCain or Mitt Romney. Making it clear they were going with a “least of all evils” choice, the New York Times grumpily endorsed McCain among Republicans. The editors of “All the news that’s fit to print” (hah!) had to pick someone. But then, in a surprise telegraphed only hours in advance to a select few reporters, Florida Governor Charlie Crist used St. Petersburg’s Lincoln Dinner to announce his endorsement of John McCain, who was on hand as a speaker at Saturday night’s Republican fundraiser. Whether it made the difference or not, McCain had taken a three-point lead in Monday morning’s rolling Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll. With a margin of error of three-and-a-half percent, I need hardly point out the true relevance of that finding. However, that margin does go either way, so bear that in mind.

The point is that, other than peoples’ natural tendency to lean first one way then the next, nothing has happened in 36 hours to tilt things McCain’s way except the Crist endorsement, although in must be taken into account that Florida Republican Senator Mel Martinez endorsed him, too. Just how much political influence does Crist have in his state? His approval ratings have never dropped much below 60 percent across-the-board since he assumed office a year ago, although one pollster observed, “Crist is popular, but he’s not Oprah.” Yeah, well, if I were a Republican candidate, I’m not sure I’d want Oprah’s endorsement.

Charlie Crist has not exactly burned up the headlines during his tenure so far, mainly because he has stayed away from “hot button” social issues such as gay marriage. Crist has little taste for that kind of warfare and surveys indicate the voters, not counting true conservatives, haven’t a great deal of interest either. But he is stumping across the state for ’Proposition One’, which doubles the Homeowners’ Tax Exemption and makes it portable, and taking McCain along, as it were, on that winning crusade can only help the Senator on Tuesday.

At the end of the day, it must be agreed that if the endorsements of such as Crist and Martinez weren’t important, they wouldn’t have been courted by the candidates. Florida may not offer so many delegates, none to Democrats (which is to say, to Hillary Clinton in this state), but it may provide a bit of that elusive quality called “momentum” for the Republican winner, even though one waggish analyst has pronounced this the year of “nomentum.” Next week is ’Super Tuesday’, so don’t look for anything but dust trails from the candidates once Florida is called. But it could be a long night.

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